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Home | Events Archive | Conditional Moment Restriction Approach for Panel Data: Revisiting the Democracy-Growth Relationship
Seminar

Conditional Moment Restriction Approach for Panel Data: Revisiting the Democracy-Growth Relationship

  • Location
    Tinbergen Institute Amsterdam, Roeterseiland campus, E5.07
    Amsterdam
  • Date and time

    April 17, 2026
    12:30 - 13:30

Abstract

This paper proposes a new estimator for studying the relationship between democracy and economic growth in a panel data setting. The estimator utilises conditional moment restrictions directly, based on the integrated conditional moment principle, thereby eliminating the need for parametric assumptions regarding the relationship between the instrument and democracy. Under regularity conditions, the estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal. Following Monte Carlo simulations, the estimator is applied to assess the impact of democracy on log GDP per capita, yielding estimates similar to 2SLS but with lower standard errors. This leads to more statistically significant evidence of long-run gains from democracy.