Hommes, C. and Lux, T. (2013). Individual expectations and aggregate behavior in learning-to-forecast experiments Macroeconomic Dynamics, 17(2):373--401.
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Affiliated author
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Publication year2013
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JournalMacroeconomic Dynamics
Models with heterogeneous interacting agents explain macro phenomena through interactions at the micro level. We propose genetic algorithms as a model for individual expectations to explain aggregate market phenomena. The model explains all stylized facts observed in aggregate price fluctuations and individual forecasting behaviour in recent learning-to-forecast laboratory experiments with human subjects (Hommes et al. 2007), simultaneously and across different treatments.