• Graduate Program
    • Why study Business Data Science?
    • Research Master
    • Admissions
    • Facilities
    • Browse our Courses
    • PhD Vacancies
    • PhD Placements
  • Research
  • Browse our Courses
  • Events
    • Events Calendar
    • Events Archive
    • Tinbergen Institute Lectures
    • Summer School
      • Deep Learning
      • Economics of Blockchain and Digital Currencies
      • Foundations of Machine Learning with Applications in Python
      • Marketing Research with Purpose
      • Modern Toolbox for Spatial and Functional Data
      • Sustainable Finance
      • Tuition Fees and Payment
      • Tinbergen Institute Summer School Program
    • Annual Tinbergen Institute Conference archive
  • News
  • Alumni

Wagener, F. (2014). Expectations in experiments Annual Review of Economics, 6:421--443.


  • Journal
    Annual Review of Economics

The rational expectations hypothesis is one of the cornerstones of current economic theorizing. This review discusses a number of experiments that focus on expectation formation by human subjects in a number of learning-to-forecast experiments and analyzes the implications for the rational expectations hypothesis. In these experiments, most agents are rational in an operational sense, and their expectations coordinate quickly, but not necessarily on the rational expectations value. In several situations, the homogeneous rational expectations hypothesis of Lucas and Prescott poorly describes the expectational dynamics and is outperformed by other hypotheses. But even in those situations in which the hypothesis gives a good description, it is more likely that coordination on rational values is brought about by the institutional structure of the market rather than the rationality of the agents.