Bosker, M. and Buringh, E. (2017). City seeds: Geography and the origins of the European city systems Journal of Urban Economics, 98:139--157.

Cities are the focal points of the world economy. This paper sheds new empirical light on their origins. Using a new dataset covering over 250,0 0 0 randomly selected potential city locations, and all actual cities during the period 80 0{\textendash}180 0, we disentangle the different roles of geography in shaping today{\textquoteright}s European city system. We find that a location{\textquoteright}s physical geography characteristics are the dominant determinants of its urban chances. Preferential location for water- or land-based transportation is a particularly important city seed. In addition, a location{\textquoteright}s position relative to already-existing cities matters for its urban chances. Interestingly, it does so in a way corresponding to predictions from economic geography theory.