Li, J., Verhoef, ErikT., Chen, S. and Wang, Y. (2026). Time-of-use pricing and peak shifting in residential EV charging: a quasi-experimental study from China Energy Economics, 163:1--23.

The rapid growth of electric vehicles (EVs) has intensified peak load pressures on electricity systems. Time-of-use (TOU) pricing aims to alleviate this pressure by incentivizing intertemporal load shifting, yet causal evidence on its effectiveness, drawn from real-world, high-frequency charging data, remains scarce. This study employs a difference-in-differences (DID) model to evaluate the impact of TOU pricing on residential EV charging behavior, utilizing high-frequency hourly data from over 20,000 users in Shandong Province, China. Findings reveal that TOU pricing significantly reduces peak-period charging while increasing off-peak consumption, indicating a pronounced intertemporal substitution effect. Despite reduced peak demand, total charging volume marginally increases due to lower charging costs. CES model estimates detect weak own-price elasticity between peak and off-peak periods but significant cross-price elasticity. Welfare analysis indicates that TOU pricing enhances consumer surplus. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that users with higher peak-hour dependence and greater consumption volatility exhibit stronger adjustments. Overall, the findings demonstrate that TOU pricing not only mitigates peak load stress but also promotes EV usage and supports the electrification of transport. These results underscore the institutional value of TOU mechanisms in facilitating vehicle-grid integration and advancing coordinated development between the energy and transport sectors.